Russian President Vladimir Putin recently increased his nuclear rhetoric by setting a new “red line” for the West. In a series of speeches, Putin hinted that Russia might think about deploying nuclear weapons if Western countries allow Ukraine to launch deep strikes on Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the West. This warning is considered as a direct response to Ukraine’s ongoing requests for modern weaponry, like as U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, which have the potential to strike far within Russian territory.
Putin’s words represent a shift in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which now says that any large conventional attack on Russian territory, particularly one supported by a nuclear power, may result in a nuclear retaliation. This approach has heightened concerns about the possibility of the Ukraine crisis escalating into a larger war, with NATO and its allies facing the threat of nuclear clash. Some experts believe this is another instance of “nuclear blackmail,” designed to terrify the West and discourage further participation in Ukraine. Others say it may be a bluff, pointing to the psychological tactics the Kremlin has frequently used in its diplomacy.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin has regularly threatened nuclear retribution. However, his recent words mark a substantial escalation. He has now recommended lowering the threshold for nuclear use, implying that any big conventional attack on Russian land, particularly one utilizing Western-supplied missiles, could be interpreted as a joint strike by a nuclear state, prompting a nuclear reaction. This shift in tone is intended to prevent the US and NATO from providing Ukraine with more modern weapons.
Putin’s threats are a two-edged sword. If taken seriously, they may reduce the West’s readiness to back Ukraine’s long-range attack capabilities. However, if interpreted as a bluff, they may inspire NATO and its partners to increase military aid, assuming that Putin’s nuclear threats are part of his psychological warfare.
According to analysts, Putin’s words were meant to instill fear and uncertainty in Western nations. By threatening nuclear war, he seeks to splinter NATO and other Ukrainian supporters. However, many experts believe that while Putin’s rhetoric is alarming, actual nuclear use is improbable unless Russia senses an existential threat.
